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BP publishes Energy Outlook 2035

Global energy demand continues to grow, but growth will slow down.

Global energy demand continues to grow but that growth is slowing and will mainly be driven by emerging economies - led by China and India - according to the latest edition of the BP Energy Outlook 2035

The Outlook reveals that global energy consumption is expected to rise by 41 per cent from 2012 to 2035 - compared to 52 per cent over the last twenty years and 30 per cent over the last ten. In comparison, International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2013 reaches this level of energy consumption (41% increase) only in 2040: more than 5 years later.

According to BP, the 95% of the growth in demand is expected to come from the emerging economies, while energy use in the advanced economies of North America, Europe and Asia as a group is expected to grow only very slowly – and begin to decline in the later years of the forecast period.

Renewables projected around 7% market share in 2035, and wil be highest in the EU: around 32%

Oil, gas and coal are expected to converge on market shares of around 26-27% each by 2035, and non-fossil fuels – nuclear, hydro and renewables – on a share of around 5-7% each.

Nuclear energy output is expected to rise to 2035 at around 1.9% a year. China, India and Russia will together account for 96% of the global growth in nuclear power, while nuclear output in the US and EU declines due to expected plant closures.

Renewables are expected to continue to be the fastest growing class of energy, gaining market share from a small base as they rise at an average of 6.4% per year to 2035. Renewables' share of global electricity production is expected to grow from 5% to 14% by 2035 (note that the electricity production is only part of the total energy demand). Including biofuels, renewables are expected to have a higher share of primary energy than nuclear by 2025.

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